2012 Grammy predictions: Adele, Kanye West, The Band Perry

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It's that time again, where a major awards ceremony is happening in a few days and I give you my best, educated guesses on the winners. Or, like I did with the VMAs, fail miserably at doing so. This time the ceremony is the Grammy Awards, which airs this Sunday. The show ought to be pretty good, with performances from Adele, Katy Perry, Rihanna, Bruce Springsteen, Taylor Swift, Nicki Minaj, Paul McCartney, Coldplay, Bruno Mars, Kelly Clarkson, Foo Fighters, Jason Aldean, and Glen Campbell. Hmm. There will be time for award giving, right? Hopefully, or this prediction post will be useless.

But, I digress! Here are my choices:

Record of the Year

The Nominees: Adele: "Rolling in the Deep"; Bon Iver: "Holocene"; Bruno Mars: "Grenade"; Mumford & Sons: "The Cave"; Katy Perry: "Firework";

My Pick: Adele

My Rationale: When I predicted the VMA winners, I made the mistake of wanting Adele to win, rather than counting on the public vote to swing in Katy Perry's favor. However, when Adele actually won in the VMAs, it was for awards that the judges chose the winners. The Grammy winners are all chosen by the Academy, so I think Adele is in a much stronger position this time.

Album of the Year

The Nominees: Adele: 21; Foo Fighters: Wasting Light; Lady Gaga: Born This Way; Bruno Mars: Doo-Woops & Hooligans; Rihanna: Loud

My Pick: Adele

My Rationale: I hemmed and hawed over giving Adele two major awards, but then I looked back and noticed that it's been something of a trend in recent years for one artist to receive two major awards. It doesn't always happen, but it happens regularly enough that I feel more comfortable doing this. 21 is an album full of solid songs, so I think it has the best chance.

Song of the Year

The Nominees: Kanye West et. al.: "All of the Lights"; Mumford & Sons: "The Cave;" Bruno Mars: "Grenade"; Bon Iver: "Holocene"; Adele: "Rolling in the Deep"

My Pick: Kanye West

My Rationale: If there is one person who's gotten more talk than Adele over the past year, it's been Kanye West. Critics have hailed both this song and its parent album My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy as some of the best music of last year.

Best New Artist

The Nominees: The Band Perry; Bon Iver; J. Cole; Nicki Minaj; Skrillex

My Pick: The Band Perry

My Rationale: I was tempted to choose Skrillex, but I believe dubstep may still be too obscure for the Academy. He might win in one or more of the Dance categories, though. Nicki Minaj seemed way too well known for this award. The Academy has typically given it to people who are less well known but have been up-and-coming over the past couple years. And I think that The Band Perry has really stepped into the spotlight over the past year and are well on their way to becoming a leading band.

Did I get them right or did I get them wrong? Let me know in the comments!